@Article{HuntingfordZGMSFLWJBMHKGLPALGZMBHNMC:2013:SiReTr,
author = "Huntingford, Chris and Zelazowski, Przemyslaw and Galbraith, David
and Mercado, Lina M. and Sitch, Stephen and Fisher, Rosie and
Lomas, Mark and Walker, Anthony P. and Jones, Chris D. and Booth,
Ben B. B. and Malhi, Yadvinder and Hemming, Debbie and Kay,
Gillian and Good, Peter and Lewis, Simon L. and Phillips, Oliver
L. and Atkin, Owen K. and Lloyd, Jon and Gloor, Emanuel and
Zaragoza-Castells, Joana and Meir, Patrick and Betts, Richard and
Harris, Phil P. and Nobre, Carlos and Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio
and Cox, Peter M.",
affiliation = "Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, United
Kingdom and Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography
and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, United
Kingdom and Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography
and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, United
Kingdom; School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT,
United Kingdom and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford
OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; Geography, College of Life and
Environmental Sciences, Amory Building, University of Exeter,
Exeter EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom and School of Geography, University
of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Geography, College of
Life and Environmental Sciences, Amory Building, University of
Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, United Kingdom and Climate and Global
Dynamics, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table
Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305, United States and Department of
Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank,
Sheffield S10 2TN, United Kingdom and Department of Animal and
Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Western Bank, Sheffield
S10 2TN, United Kingdom and Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy
Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom and Met Office Hadley Centre,
FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom and Environmental
Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment,
University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, United Kingdom and Met
Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom
and Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, United
Kingdom and Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1
3PB, United Kingdom and School of Geography, University of Leeds,
Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University
College London, Pearson Building, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT,
United Kingdom and School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds
LS2 9JT, United Kingdom and Division of Plant Sciences, Research
School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT
0200, Australia and School of Geography, University of Leeds,
Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom; Centre for Tropical Environment and
Sustainability Science (TESS), School of Earth and Environmental
Science, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD 4878, Australia and
School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United
Kingdom and School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh,
Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, United Kingdom and Division of
Plant Sciences, Research School of Biology, Australian National
University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia; School of Geosciences,
University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP,
United Kingdom and Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter
EX1 3PB, United Kingdom and Centre for Ecology and Hydrology,
Wallingford OX10 8BB, United Kingdom and {} and {Instituto
Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and College of
Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of
Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, United Kingdom",
title = "Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2 -induced
climate change",
journal = "Nature Geoscience",
year = "2013",
volume = "6",
number = "4",
pages = "268--273",
month = "Apr.",
keywords = "assessment method, biodegradation, carbon dioxide, climate change,
climate modeling, deforestation, ecosystem resilience, numerical
model, physiological response, precipitation (climatology),
rainforest, temperature effect, tropical environment, tropical
forest, twenty first century, vegetation structure, Africa, Asia,
western hemisphere.",
abstract = "How tropical forest carbon stocks might alter in response to
changes in climate and atmospheric composition is uncertain.
However, assessing potential future carbon loss from tropical
forests is important for evaluating the efficacy of programmes for
reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation.
Uncertainties are associated with different carbon stock responses
in models with different representations of vegetation processes
on the one hand, and differences in projected changes in
temperature and precipitation patterns on the other hand. Here we
present a systematic exploration of these sources of uncertainty,
along with uncertainty arising from different emissions scenarios
for all three main tropical forest regions: the Americas (that is,
Amazonia and Central America), Africa and Asia. Using simulations
with 22 climate models and the MOSES-TRIFFID land surface scheme,
we find that only in one of the simulations are tropical forests
projected to lose biomass by the end of the twenty-first century -
and then only for the Americas. When comparing with alternative
models of plant physiological processes, we find that the largest
uncertainties are associated with plant physiological responses,
and then with future emissions scenarios. Uncertainties from
differences in the climate projections are significantly smaller.
Despite the considerable uncertainties, we conclude that there is
evidence of forest resilience for all three regions.",
doi = "10.1038/ngeo1741",
url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1741",
issn = "1752-0894",
label = "scopus",
language = "en",
targetfile = "ngeo1741.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "03 maio 2024"
}